(This is a work in progress, changing daily, as we move along from news story to news story.)
Not yet two months into the Trump Administration, new news is coming fast and furious, and a lot of people are already beginning to worry that Trump is being damaged by much of it.
Actually, I think not, at least not yet, but it isn’t difficult to keep score if you employ only a few simple rules.
(I think you can do this at home, with a Word Document, although chalkboard and eraser can actually be more fun, inasmuch as you can work off a lot of nervous energy.)
So far, I see no evidence of Donald Trump losing ground with the voters. In fact I see him gaining points, up from 47% (his election tally) to 53%-55% in popularity. And there are at least 20% more of the Democrat voters to win, if he will only keep his eye on the prize. Forget approval polls that suggest he’s lost ground. They just can’t make a logical mathematical case that a man who is keeping every promise he made is losing ground to the people who voted for him on account of those promises
Trump’s path is clear…
If he keeps his promises, his popular approval will grow, and there’s nothing short of an armed coup or impeachment that can derail him.
(Hold that thought. This isn’t hyperbole.)
With this in mind, then, the First Law of Trump Math is that as long as Donald Trump keeps his word to his core base he will hold onto that core base no matter what. And that core base is enough to put him in the White House a second time. I see nothing yet in the current media campaigns to indicate where, or how, the Left and the forces of anti-MAGA might gain voters for their side.
So, do not confuse Trump voters with the uninformed, wishy-washy Republicans, undecideds or moderates who pay almost no attention to elections until Halloween. Trump’s are the most politically (and philosophically) literate aggregation of voters since de Toqueville first met them in Illinois in 1831. And they gain their savvy, as in the 1830s, without benefit of Media, but rather a love of hearth, home and country, common sense and a depth of skill at critical thinking (called connecting more than two-dots) denied two-thirds of the liberal arts departments in America’s universities.
And Trump voters are battle-hardened, having first elected a House of Representatives, only to watch that team roll over as quickly as a new Speaker was elected…then a Senate, only to see that fine crop of blue bloods worry more about keeping their business suits unruffled than keeping platitudinous promises they’d made (but likely never really intended to keep) since 2008. Third time is a charm, after six hard years of work, fortitude and perseverance, but also totally out of character with what pollsters believed common, middle class citizens to be, even now, they rallied around an unlikely nominee with the simple promise of making America great again.
This is not to say that Donald Trump can’t misstep, or screw up, only not because the Media, the Democrats, or John McCain say it.
So, don’t believe any negative poll numbers UNLESS there has been an intervening event, of Trump’s making, and for which his voters know firsthand.
This is the essential handshake between Donald Trump and the people.
Therefore, common sense tells us that as long as the Democrats and Media continue to play to their own core base, nothing fundamentally will change. Making a lie sound believable to an idiot changes nothing. This cannot derail the enthusiasm for Donald Trump. Our voters are not kids who grow bored easily. They are not spoiled or petulant.
So, if Vegas were giving odds, the trend would be upward – that Donald Trump could easily “steal” at least 10%, more likely 20% of the remaining Democrat voter base to the Trump side. (Pollsters are unwilling to go out and find how many he brought over in 2016, except to say they were “white, mostly men, and angry.”)
Even if Mr Trump is unable to get the GOP Congress to go along with his promises, in the short turn it will be this GOP Congress who will pay a price. (More on that at another time, as an Obamacare repeal vote looms.)
Second Rule of Trump Math: Only if Trump kowtows to the Congress will he lose favor with his base.
Because of a successful “fake news” counter-campaign by Trump forces, in which the Media largely shot itself in the foot because it didn’t believe, or couldn’t bring itself to accept, the hard mathematics of the First Law (above) the traditional way in which the Media and Democrat Party had been able to turn public opinion from a positive to a negative for over forty years, this alliance is now confronted with having to 1) come up with a totally new strategy to derail Trump or 2) double-triple-quadruple down on being able to bend the more bendable elements of law, as we’re seeing now with the judiciary, but especially, weaker elements of the Republican Establishment and their deep pocket globalist donors.
And while we’re not being made aware of it, the window is closing more quickly as to how long the Media-Democrat Alliance have to pull off this turn-around miracle. Every month since the election, we are seeing a growing number of adult, been-in-the-game-a-long-time liberal journalists adopt a “more honest” (to coin a phrase) approach to covering news about the Trump administration. A counter-media (call it “old-fashioned liberal media” if you wish) is taking place as we speak, and they will eventually find a corporate media presence. (Clue: there used to be a thing called “honest liberalism” extant in America.)
While I don’t trust any pollster, based simply on the notion that they are all for hire, and have their price, and the Democrats can probably pay that price when the time is ripe, still Trump does seem to actually have gained since the election. (March 3, Rasmussen, 53% approval versus 47% disapproval (37%-36% felt strongly) and over 70% liked Trump’s speech to Congress, which is noteworthy since more Americans paid attention to that speech than have been following the Russian Connection-Sessions soap opera, or even the Trump Tower bugging story.
I stopped relying on exit polls when I noticed who were conducting them (Media) and I compared Barack Obama’s 2012 black vote numbers (93%) with black precinct voting in Virginia which almost never exceeded 88%. There has always been a biased fudge-factor there.
Simple math: it’s impossible to know how many blacks voted for any candidate in any election, but we all know it can’t be 100%-105% (Cleveland, Philadelphia, Detroit). And especially since nearly 50% of America’s black preachers are urging their parishioners to throw the Democrats out because of 50 years of broken promises and even more broken homes, it’s counter-intuitive to believe no one is listening. If you will recall the famous North Carolina special vote banning same-sex marriage in 2012, it happened because of black voters…against the advice and arm-twisting of their own party and neighborhood organizers.
While more and more blacks are indeed graduating from college, almost none go into the private sector, steered, more than choosing, the more secure, not-what-you-know-but-who-you-know path of government work over a more competitive merit-based environment.
But black anger with the Democrats is what happens to the rest, those who are not tapped out for college. Living in blighted communities where education is a low priority, and real-wage production jobs non-existent, the only real legal money to be made there are via those connected overseers affiliated with the Party or community organizations, who get the lion’s share of federal welfare program dollars. From 2012 and 2014, watch both of these videos for proof of how the Democrat power structure is enhanced by keeping their plantations in poverty.
Donald Trump had a message for those folks, and if he is able to open only a few doors, the Democrat Party will be finished there. But it will be bloody, for an awful lot of gangsters at city hall, and in the offices of ACORN and OFA, will fight back to protect their rice bowls.
Cultural Corporate Math.
In a later article, Advanced Chalk-Board Math, we may explore how the private sector management sector has been redefined along class-lines more commonly found in the Academy, where elitist snobbery runs rampant. Obama is from this order. Now that so many major American corporations are into their third and fourth generation without having a single corporate executive who can draw or whistle a happy tune (Disney), build a car from scratch or design one from imagination (Ford, GM), or tell the difference between wheat and oats (General Mills) it was predictable that a new generation of private sector elitists would also arise, bathing in the afterglow of unearned merit, and armed with the newest technological tools of management (particularly of information) but totally unskilled in the art of leadership with their own great unwashed.
It was from the turnover in the way American corporations were designed along these lines in the 1980s, that I witnessed the American manufacturing workplace decline in the 1980s. Battalions of front office managers descended with the single belief that all those production arts could be reduced to a network of computer programs and the sincere belief that (as I actually heard them say, “I can teach monkeys to make a car…or cartoon film or t-shirt.”) thus turning the handshake between previous two generations of their forebear “manufacturers” and their employees into a synonym for backward Neanderthals.
You will find this thinking at the heart of the heart of globalist, cartelist thinking that has found hitching its wagon to the “rising star” of statism to be a far more rewarding and profitable approach to business ventures than slugging it out with Kraft Foods or Tyson Foods.
From what I know of Donald Trump, he’s old school (we’re the same age) and his history, not of building or negotiating, but of that handshake with his employees, has proved he instinctively understands the value of the human factor in business. And leadership. From the Left’s point of view, what was alarming from his election was that he drew several good people from what they believed to belong to the globalist, “you-can-teach-a-monkey” school of labor management.
These are numbers we need to delve into deeper at another time. In the past few years I have seen this elitist syndrome in several very successful smaller companies of less than $50m a year, and 200 employees, so know there is a cultural gulf between front office and front lines where nothing is shared between the two, almost as if this were 14th Century France all over again.
The good news is, everywhere you turn, the elites are losing and if the corporate sector sees it’s losing it political advantage, the marketplace will drive it away from the cartelist corral. And the business culture will adjust accordingly.
The math as to why this is so is simple. Define the term, “elite.” You can’t be both an “elite” and a part of a majority, at least the kind that wins elections…unless you can convince the people you represent their best interests. But for the Left as well as the nouveau corporate business elites, that ship has sailed.
Today they know the only way they can represent the people’s best interests – against their will – is with a gun to their heads. While the Left has the stomach for that, they haven’t the wherewithal…and the corporations really haven’t the heart for it. So at least this marriage is ready to draw up a separation agreement.
This is why metaphors about “bloody noses” and “hangings” have become so popular the last three-four years. Because that’s where last resorts always take us.
The Left, standing alone, with only the political establishment, are limited in their options. They can’t shoot their way to power, a la the Bolsheviks, in part, because too few of them can shoot, or have the stomach for it. We just discussed that the other day.
Therefore they can’t take territory other than the blighted areas (and a few gated communities) they already control, and once we go into those blighted areas, it won’t be with guns a’blazing but rather with fistfuls of schools and job opportunities.
You have to know that at the planning level of the Left-Media “alliance” this is how they see their choices, which are pretty poor. But on the other hand they also see at least 50 years of hard work slipping from their fingers.
With the full-throated support of the Cartelists, this is the Left’s existential crisis. They must look more strongly toward the Republican weak-link.
Next: Impeachment, their only way forward, and why raw numbers matter.
Publications: Famous Common People I Have Known and Other Essays
Donald Trump, the Common Man and the American Theology of Liberty
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