Please see our October 18 Update, here.
As expected Deaths rose over the past 30-day period, October 18- thru- November 16. But nothing compared to the “case” rate which I continue to think are way over-sold because of the potential to make political hay. Declining or flat deaths are not sexy. But rates wre expected to grow since we are moving into the cold season again, at least according to the conventional wisdom last Spring, when I began counting Marc 20.
As you can tell, since the highs of April/May, 2020, monthly death totals have ranged between 960 to 623, and if you’ll note the range, from May, one-up, one-down, 2-up, one-down, one-up.
You can see the patterns on a daily basis, 4-or-5 up, then 2, sometimes 3, down. I don’t know if this is a reflection of nature, or a result of counting (human involvement.) I’ll continue to watch over the next 30 days, ending mid-December.
Original Report (Amended)
This morning at 5:30 AM I turned on my trusty Daily Coronavirus Worldwide case and death count report.
I’ve done this daily, same time, same station, since March 20, when the total US reported deaths were 200. This morning those deaths crossed the 200,000 mark, 200,643 to be precise, the quoted source the US government’s Center for Disease Control, or CDC, as it’s affectionately known.
If you follow reported “Corona News” and the actual reported numbers not so much, you’ll know that we are woefully behind schedule, as we were supposed to be nearing a million by the end of the year, and at the current rate we may not even get to 300,000 by the end of the year. So this coming 9/18-to-10/17 period will be crucial in the news cycles, since after mid October other news will have seized their attention for close to a month.
All my numbers came from the same source, cited above, which used CDC numbers for the United States and WHO numbers for the rest of the world, although we know the western world uses their own national agencies, and not WHO to actually gather the statistics. I quit gathering and relying on world numbers when China stopped reporting in April or May, and even on the best day, worldwide Covid cases and deaths are a mishmash of contradictory information. However flawed the US counting may be, it shows signs of predictability and consistency.
DEATHS 30 DAY Ave/day
3/20 – 4/18 200- 34,400 +32.2k 1,140/day
4/19 – 5/19 – 90,700 +56.3k 1,870/day
5/20 – 6/18 – 119,500 +28.8k 960/day
6/19 – 7/18 – 140,900 +20.4k 680/day
7/19 – 8/18 – 172,400 +31.5k 1,050/day
8/19 – 9/17 – 199,700 +27.3k 910/day
9/18 – 10/17 – 205,300* +18.7k 623/day *-Revised, see comments
10/18-11/16 – 232,500 +27.2k 907/day
I don’t use graphs because, depending on the way you set the scale, you can make the difference in 1000 deaths look like a deep valley in the Alps or a small rise across the plains of Nebraska.
Just imagine what these numbers would look like if we removed all the deaths to people over 65? Or 75? We would probably be crossing our 50,000-death milestone instead of 200,000th, and the use of the term “pandemic” would be stricken from the record, and only CNN would use it.
We also know there has been false reporting, some by cynical hospital staffs knowing there is money to be had if a patient dies of Covid instead of a ruptured spleen. I expect more than a few shoddy surgeries were covered up by Covid. But even though government bureaucrats-cum-scientists try to make people believe they can tell us how many people will die next month by not wearing a mask, with the same accuracy they can tell you about a rainstorm over New York next week, while the clouds and wind are still gathering over Pittsburgh, they will all tell you that it is impossible to go back and re-survey 200,000 death certificates for a more exact cause of death. Past deaths are outside their skill range but predictive clairvoyance of what lies ahead, now that’s the ticket.
I understand why the media reports cases instead of deaths, for they are growing rapidly, mainly because America is testing more than the rest of the world combined. And even here, there are the government vs FDA vs testing manufacturers, who warn of 3% false positive in approving the test, when find that 50% or more are false.
And because of China, who has reported 4634 deaths and 86,000 cases (compared to the US 6,767,453 cases and 200,643 deaths) since the US was still under 90,000 deaths in May, the WHO worldwide reports are meaningless. In looking at the Top 35 of the world’s Covid case, all over 100,000 cases and 1000 deaths, (China is not among them) I can only think of 1 or 2 who have no reason to gyp the numbers.
Sweden would be one, and no one is interested in how they did it.
I’ll add an update in 30 days, but I have a sneaking suspicion that after November 4th there will be no Covid news, but there will be lots more news about the plight of the people in small business and the working class who were destroyed by the decisions of their political respective political leadership.
And there will be news how President Trump will be able to shift federal money to those “disaster” victims without greasing the pockets of the several levels of Democrat who always think they can skim 20% or more off the top.
Stay tuned 10/18/2020